As of 15:00 GMT on November 25, 2023, the exchange rate of ada to usd was $0.38 (CoinMarketCap #CMC257), down 87.7% from the historical peak of $3.10 in September 2021. However, it has risen by 58.3% compared to the low point of $0.24 in January 2023. With a current market capitalization of 13 billion US dollars, it ranks 8th among cryptocurrencies. The 24-hour trading volume is 320 million US dollars (Binance accounts for 41%), and the liquidity concentration shows that the top 5 exchanges contribute 78% of the trading volume. According to Messari data, the 30-day price correlation coefficient between ADA and Bitcoin is 0.68 (ranging from -1 to 1), indicating that its fluctuations partially follow the mainstream market trend.
Technical indicator analysis shows that the daily RSI (Relative Strength Index) of ADA is 49.5 (neutral range), the MACD histogram is negative (-0.0015), the short-term resistance level is at $0.42 (the high point in October 2023), and the support level is at $0.35 (the low point in September). On-chain data shows that in the past week, “Giant Whale Address” (holding over 10 million ADA) increased its holdings by 210 million ADA (about 8 million US dollars), accounting for 0.6% of the total outstanding supply, which may indicate that some investors are betting on a price rebound.
Ecological progress has a significant impact on ada to usd. In September 2023, Cardano completed the Vasil hard fork upgrade, enhancing the efficiency of smart contracts (reducing Plutus script costs by 50%), and increasing the number of on-chain DApps from 150 at the beginning of the year to 500 (data from Cardano’s blockchain browser). However, the DeFi locked value (TVL) is only 630 million US dollars (DefiLlama), which is 93% lower than that of Ethereum. In terms of partners, World Mobile Token (WMT) has expanded its decentralized network in Africa, covering over 500,000 users. However, the actual usage rate of ADA as a payment token only accounts for 12% of online transactions (IOHK Q3 2023 report).
In terms of regulatory dynamics, in July 2023, the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) included ADA in the list of compliant tokens, driving a 37% weekly increase in trading volume in the Middle East (CoinGecko #CG2023Q3). However, in the lawsuit against Coinbase (Case No. 1:23-cv-01599) filed by the US SEC, ADA was listed as an unregistered security, resulting in a 29% decrease in its average daily trading volume on Coinbase (data from August 2023). In terms of market sentiment, Santiment’s statistics show that the social discussion volume of ADA increased by 28% week-on-week, but the weighted sentiment index was -0.65 (dominated by negative factors), and the controversy surrounding the “adoption speed of smart contracts” continues.
In terms of macroeconomic linkage, during the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike cycle, the 30-day volatility (annualized) of the ADA reached 82%, significantly higher than the 18% of the Nasdaq 100 Index. When the yield on US Treasuries broke through 5% in October 2023, ADA dropped by 14% in a single week, while gold rose by 3.2% during the same period. The derivatives market shows that Binance’s ADA/USDT perpetual contract funding rate is -0.01% (dominated by short sellers), with an outstanding contract volume of 480 million US dollars, a long-short ratio of 0.8:1, and the popularity of leveraged trading is relatively low.